Monday, July 28, 2014

The Simulation in Ukraine

Much noise was made about alleged Russian attempts to prevent Ukraine from signing an association agreement with the European Union. The story line went like this: Putin wants to keep Ukraine within the Russian sphere of influence and offers fifteen billion US dollars if the Ukraine joins the economic pact with Russia and several other countries. Yanukovych did not sign the EU association agreement. Then "pro-European" demonstrations began on the central square in Kiev in the second half of November 2013.

Actually the best way to control the European Union is to become a member and manipulate it from within. Russians are not stupid. They can keep Crimea and may have their Ukrainian friends inside the EU at some future date, just like they have their Polish friends inside the EU.

We are witnessing the process of manufacturing a fake narrative in Ukraine. The problem in Ukraine is of a cognitive nature, not a military one.The events during the last eight or nine months are not the result of struggle between the pro-European and pro-Russian options, as proclaimed by various opinion makers.

It is a virtual conflict, not a real one. The ruling circles in Russia, Poland and elsewhere in the former communist block know that the key to successful manipulation is the imposition of a fake narrative. If it is accepted by those who are the deception target, it will be the basis for all subsequent actions with almost no risk of detection.

Yes, there are some real events, like the shooting down of the Malaysian passenger jet on 17 July 2014. This is collateral damage that is used to support the illusion of a real conflict. The downing of the MH17 was most likely carefully planned. The recordings of "separatists" commanders talking to each other, allegedly "intercepted" by the Ukrainian intelligence, were most likely fake. More precisely, the voices were apparently authentic ones but the dialogues were most likely scripted, likely recorded after the event.

One of the basic cognitive problems is to recognize when the two parties which are seemingly engaged in a strong disagreement, are actually faking the conflict and are cooperating against the third party instead. In other words, the aim of the action is to fool the third party for a later gain, not to fight each other.

The West has lost touch with reality in Eastern Europe long time ago. They look, but they do not see.